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Before discussing who the Cubs can target, though, we need to discuss who is a candidate for replacement and whose jobs are most likely safe–specifically, for now, in the lineup and on the bench.
There are a couple of players who most certainly have their jobs secure–Nico ho*rner has a 110 wRC+ thus far, walked more than he has struck out, and, despite him having a bit of a rough start defensively (he sits at a neutral 0 Outs Above Average), it’s easy to believe he’ll have a bounce back.
Dansby Swanson likely has his spot secure–the two-time Gold Glove winner has struggled this year, but the Cubs paid him $177 million dollars. He isn’t going anywhere. Of course, the Cubs' other highly-paid hitter, Cody Bellinger, isn’t going anywhere either. And Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki have no-trade clauses that guarantee them roster spots. However, this leaves at least some uncertainty for other players on the roster.
Both catchers are candidates to be replaced at this point–and this is likely the Cubs' biggest point of need right now. Through June 3rd, just one team has gotten worse offensive performance from their catchers than the Cubs–the Marlins. Miguel Amaya and Yan Gomes have combined for a 37 wRC+. They have accrued -1.2 fWAR, and, according to FanGraphs FRM metric, they have been the third-worst framing unit among all catchers. Baseball Savant, too, has a framing metric–the Cubs rank fourth-worst here while arguably the worst duo in the league at holding the running game. They have the worst CS% among any team in baseball, and, while certainly some of that may be an issue on the pitching holding the running game, Savant’s Caught Stealing metric attempts to control for factors like this, along with runner speed and the Cubs still rank fourth-worst. The Cubs need improvement here, and with each passing day, it feels less and less likely that either one of Amaya or Gomes will be the one to provide it.
Another position that concerns me is third base, though more on the defensive than the offensive side. Christopher Morel has taken the majority of reps at third base thus far, and the results have been quite underwhelming. Forget third base; Morel has been the worst defensive player in all of baseball. His -9 OAA this year is tied for dead last in the league, while he also sports -7 DRS (which comes in at sixth worst in baseball). No doubt, his offense has also been underwhelming, though, in Morel’s defense, no-hitter in baseball has been more unlucky when you look at wOBA-xwOBA. However, something has to give, and he’s been a huge reason the defense has been so poor this year.
There’s not anyone else who I feel has been a huge liability and is a huge candidate to be replaced this year. Nick Madrigal, of course, was a candidate, but he has since been sent back down to Triple-A and replaced with David Bote (who has one more option left). Perhaps Pete Crow-Armstrong could be optioned, though once again, that is unlikely. He has been good this year and earned playing time at the Major League level.
There are, of course, some internal options, though many of them don’t have proximity to the majors. Moises Ballesteros has been one of the best hitters in the Double-A Southern League. At just 20 years old, Ballesteros has coupled a 10.9 BB% with just a 13.9 K%. He is the third-youngest player in the league and has a 139 wRC+ despite this. The issue, again, is proximity to the majors. It is unlikely the Cubs (who seem to have been cautious with prospect promotions) will promote him directly to MLB at 20 years old or even give him a short stint at Triple-A.
Pablo Aliendo is also at Double-A Tennessee and has a 153 wRC+, but he has big whiff issues–he is currently striking out at a 35% clip. I still think he is more likely to see time at the Major League level this year due to his age–he is three years older than Ballesteros and maybe next in line for a call-up, given the Cubs catching tandem currently in Iowa isn’t exactly setting the world on fire either.
As for how the Cubs can address third base from within, my mind immediately goes to another Tennessee Smokies player–Cubs 2023 first-round pick Matt Shaw. Shaw has spent all the offseason learning third base and is pretty athletic. Plus, he’s shown much-improved patience at the plate this year, walking over 15% of the time so far (up from 5.3% last year). The raw numbers don’t look great–he’s hitting just .234 and has an OPS under .750, but the Southern League has been a poor offensive environment all year. MLB tested different baseballs at Double-A last season, so I’m not sure it would be shocking if they used deadened baseballs in this league, which could help explain some of the league environment.
One third base option at Triple-A is Chase Strumpf. Though he’s been on a rehab assignment this year, Strumpf is about as close to the majors as you can get and displays a good power discipline combo despite a lot of swing and miss. Strumpf has spent over 1300 innings at third during his time in the minors and is given a 60 fielding grade on FanGraphs, while MLB Pipeline gave him a 55. Certainly, the swing and miss can be a concern, but there is potential, and he’s been sitting on the cusp of a call-up since last season.
Of course, the other third base option from Iowa is Luis Vazquez, who we’ve already seen get (minimal) playing time in the bigs this year. Vazquez is a defensive specialist and has struggled with the bat lately, but he has still made big strides at the plate and could be a candidate for a call-up if the Cubs need it.
Given the Cubs don't need outfield help too badly right now, I still need to bring up Owen Caissie or Brennen Davis. Brennen was my Cubs MiLB Hitter of the Month for April, while Caissie has a 133 wRC+ at Triple-A and has hit multiple baseballs over 115 MPH this year as a 21-year old (that goes along with 8 110+ MPH batted balls in total). These are both exciting prospects, but I have a hard time seeing either make a real impact this year, given the Cubs' lack of need for outfielder at the MLB level.
